UK non-commodity charge · Distribution · Gas
Gas shrinkage
Latest published rate, who sets it, and where it is forecast to go.
What Gas shrinkage is, who sets the rate, what the revenue funds and where it is heading. Rates come from the Purely Energy non-commodity cost data hub; forecasts are our own.
Roughly 0.5 to 1.5% of a typical UK business gas bill
Gas shrinkage: what it is, who charges it, and what it pays for
What it is
The Gas shrinkage charge in plain English
Gas lost in the distribution network through leakage, own-use, and unaccounted-for gas (UIG). Charged as a percentage uplift on throughput by GDNs. The cost to you depends on the wholesale gas price, shrinkage % × wholesale p/kWh = your cost in p/kWh.
Introduced Inherent to gas distribution since privatisation.
Who charges it
The body that sets the rate
GDNs, published annually. Ofgem monitors via AQDS submissions
Unit
%
Applies to
All gas supplies (percentage set per distribution network)
What it pays for
Where the revenue ends up
Compensating for gas lost between NTS offtake and your meter
Share of typical bill
0.5 to 1.5%
Gas distribution networks recover shrinkage (leakage, own use and unaccounted-for gas) at roughly 0.5 to 1.5% of a non-domestic gas bill, depending on the wholesale price it is valued at.
Forecast trajectory
Forecasts from our non-commodity cost model. P10, P50 and P90 are the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile outcomes; P50 is the central estimate.
| Year | P10 | P50 | P90 | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 0.7991 | 0.8323 | 0.8655 | med | RIIO-GD3 transition creates methodology uncertainty but iron mains replacement programmes provide structural support |
| 2027-28 | 0.7908 | 0.8240 | 0.8572 | med | Iron mains replacement benefits begin materialising though delivery risks remain from supply chain constraints |
| 2028-29 | 0.7747 | 0.8070 | 0.8393 | med | Cumulative infrastructure improvements and leak detection technology deployment accelerate shrinkage reductions |
| 2029-30 | 0.7563 | 0.7877 | 0.8191 | med | Structural improvements continue but easier efficiency gains captured, moderating rate of decline |
| 2030-31 | 0.7675 | 0.7995 | 0.8315 | low | Declining gas throughput begins offsetting infrastructure improvements, pushing shrinkage percentages upward |
| 2031-32 | 0.7139 | 0.8300 | 0.9200 | low | Highly uncertain due to absent RIIO-GD4 framework and accelerating demand decline impacts |
| 2032-33 | 0.7566 | 0.8784 | 0.9742 | low | Speculative estimate assuming aging infrastructure effects dominate as easier replacement targets completed |
| 2033-34 | 0.7939 | 0.9223 | 1.023 | low | Progressive increase reflects assumption of continued demand decline and infrastructure aging effects |
| 2034-35 | 0.8459 | 0.9823 | 1.090 | low | Directional estimate subject to fundamental uncertainties about energy transition and regulatory framework |
Gas shrinkage FAQs
What is the Gas shrinkage charge?
Gas lost in the distribution network through leakage, own-use, and unaccounted-for gas (UIG). Charged as a percentage uplift on throughput by GDNs. The cost to you depends on the wholesale gas price, shrinkage % × wholesale p/kWh = your cost in p/kWh.
Who sets the Gas shrinkage rate?
The Gas shrinkage rate is set by GDNs, published annually. Ofgem monitors via AQDS submissions.
What does Gas shrinkage pay for?
Gas shrinkage revenue supports Compensating for gas lost between NTS offtake and your meter.
What is the Gas shrinkage rate?
Gas shrinkage is set by your regional network operator, so there is no single national rate. Use the NCC calculator with your MPAN or postcode to see the rate for your region.
What is the Gas shrinkage forecast?
Our latest forecast for 2026-27 is 0.8323 % (med confidence). RIIO-GD3 transition creates methodology uncertainty but iron mains replacement programmes provide structural support
Related charges in Distribution
Calculate your Gas shrinkage exposure
Enter an MPAN or postcode plus kWh/kVA to see Gas shrinkage alongside every other non-commodity line item for this year and next.
Flexible contracts and pass-through costs
How we manage non-commodity exposure for I&C buyers who need to stress-test contract decisions.
All UK energy charges
Browse every non-commodity charge with the latest published rates and forecast trajectory.
Rate data from the Purely Energy non-commodity cost data hub (dh.purelyenergy.co.uk). Published rates come from statutory publications by the body listed above; forecasts are modelled from published guidance and market trends, so treat P50 as a central estimate and use P10/P90 for sensitivity.