Brent crude hits $110 a barrel as Middle East and Russia risks mount

Brent crude touched $110 a barrel for the first time in five months on Friday, settling at $109.86 after a $3.94 jump. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose in tandem, up $3.44 to $101.41, its highest since 17 September. Over the week, Brent gained 4.9% and WTI climbed 10.4%, a sharp repricing for any business with exposure to oil-linked energy costs.

The move is driven by escalating supply risk on two fronts. Bloomberg reported that a Saudi-led coalition intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at the Red Sea port of Yanbu, a critical route for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, while attacks near Hormuz itself have intensified over the past ten days after Iran vowed to retaliate against a US port blockade and fresh sanctions. Separately, Reuters reported that Russia's Ryazan refinery suspended its primary crude distillation unit following a Ukrainian drone strike, after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy abandoned a US-brokered ceasefire on energy sites. Analysts at Kpler said intensified Iranian attacks have 'significantly reduced Gulf crude flows', with a slow recovery expected absent a political settlement.

The chart below tracks Brent crude over the past six months, giving scale to just how sharp this week's jump to $110 really is.

What this means for UK buyers

Oil does not set UK gas or power prices directly, but it shapes sentiment across energy markets and feeds into diesel and freight costs that sit on top of most commercial energy bills. Businesses on fixed contracts renewing in the coming months should expect forward curves to reflect this risk premium, not just spot volatility. Flexible or index-linked contracts will feel the move faster, and finance teams budgeting for Q1 2027 energy costs should treat this as a live input, not background noise.

• Yanbu port infrastructure reported undamaged, per Rapidan Energy Group
• Strait of Hormuz flows under sustained pressure from Iranian strikes
• Ryazan refinery's primary crude unit offline after drone attack
• Russian diesel export capacity now in question
• IEA releasing over 20 million barrels of fuel into the market
• US Department of Energy seeking to exchange up to 17 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Responses are already underway to cap the move. The International Energy Agency agreed on Thursday to release more than 20 million barrels of fuel, part of a wider commitment alongside roughly 30 countries to release 400 million barrels from global reserves, with Washington separately loaning 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Energy Aspects noted that WTI and Brent 'reversed early losses as fears of escalation reemerged', pointing to an underlying market still pricing in further disruption rather than resolution.

Watch how Hormuz flows develop over the next fortnight and whether the Ryazan refinery resumes distillation; both will determine whether this settles as a temporary risk premium or hardens into a sustained repricing that works its way into UK forward gas and power curves.