Brent falls $1.18 to $105.47 as Russian diesel relief offsets Gulf risk
Published 13 October 2026
Brent crude fell $1.18, or 1.1%, to $105.47 a barrel on Tuesday, its first drop in almost a week, as the prospect of fresh Russian diesel supply offset ongoing concerns over Gulf infrastructure.
Brent crude slipped $1.18, or 1.1%, to $105.47 a barrel by 0625 GMT, with US West Texas Intermediate down $1.17, or 1.3%, to $92.57. Both benchmarks had climbed nearly $2 a barrel the previous session, with Brent closing at its highest level since 15 September, so Tuesday's pullback marks a pause rather than a reversal in the recent upward trend.
The move follows confirmation that Russia has agreed to supply diesel to global markets, prompting the Trump administration to temporarily lift US sanctions on Russian fuel exports. Reuters reported that this easing is intended to relieve tightness in global diesel markets, which has been one of the drivers propping up crude prices through September and into October. ING analysts remain sceptical of the broader Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, noting reports that Russia targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure shortly after the announcement, and US lawmakers from both parties have questioned whether the arrangement breaches existing US law on Russian energy imports.
The chart below tracks Brent crude over recent months, giving context to today's pullback from multi-week highs.
Wholesale market chart
Brent Crude
Last 7 days, settlement data
111.7USD/bbl
+5.2% over 7 days
Why this window: Last 7 days — 5.2% range, 5.2% net move higher. Tight window picked so the week's price action is visible.
What this means for UK buyers
Gulf supply risk has not gone away. Bloomberg's market coverage noted that Iran-aligned Houthi attacks on Riyadh's international airport over the weekend, alongside reports of tanker assaults near the Strait of Hormuz, continue to threaten the recovery in Middle Eastern supply seen through September. For UK commercial buyers, this is a crude market caught between two opposing forces: incremental diesel relief from Russia and unresolved shipping risk through one of the world's most important transit corridors. That tension matters for anyone pricing fuel-linked contracts or watching wholesale gas and power curves, which remain sensitive to Brent moves even on a single-day basis.
- Russian diesel supply easing fuel market tightness
- Houthi attack on Riyadh international airport
- Reported tanker assaults near the Strait of Hormuz
- Shipping and insurance costs exceeding one-third of cargo value
- OPEC's 2025 demand growth forecast cut to 400,000 bpd from 1.4 million bpd
Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, said new diesel supplies from Russia and stable Saudi flows 'provide some relief', but that the market remains 'more concerned about potential attacks on ships or pipelines in the Gulf than reassured by the additional barrels'. He added that, absent clearer signs of de-escalation, the prevailing trend appears to be upward. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais confirmed the downgraded demand forecast, citing the toll that elevated shipping and insurance costs are taking on crude transport economics this year.
Watch for confirmation of actual Russian diesel cargoes reaching market, any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz or further Gulf infrastructure attacks, and the US congressional response to the sanctions waiver, all of which will shape whether this pullback holds or crude resumes testing its September-October highs.
How we produced this article
This article was AI-drafted from public market reporting by Harvey Rowlinson on 13 October 2026. It is scheduled for its next review on 13 October 2027.
Sources
- Oil prices decline as improved Russian diesel supply outlook offsets Gulf supply concerns., Reuters (accessed 13 October 2026) (subscription required)
- Oil Edges Lower After Rising on Expanding Middle East Conflict, Bloomberg (accessed 13 October 2026) (subscription required)
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