Brent falls $1.34 from five-month high as Hormuz risk clouds outlook

Brent crude slipped to $108.52 a barrel by 1002 GMT, down $1.34 on the session, after touching its best level in five months last Friday. US West Texas Intermediate eased a smaller 13 cents to $101.28, having closed the previous week at its highest since 17 September. The pullback looks like profit-taking rather than a change in the underlying supply picture, and that picture remains tight.

Reuters reported that an Iranian oil tanker caught fire and exploded on Sunday after striking a naval mine in the southern Strait of Hormuz, the latest in a run of incidents disrupting the Gulf's main export route. Analytics firm Kpler recorded at least 10 confirmed attacks on commercial vessels last week, and says crude flows through the strait averaged roughly 8.5 million barrels per day, down from more than 20 million bpd the week before. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said ongoing attacks and flow rates still below pre-conflict levels continue to support prices even as headline crude eases.

The chart below tracks Brent over the past six months, giving context to how close last Friday's five-month high sits against the current pullback.

What this means for UK buyers

For UK commercial energy buyers, the Brent pullback does not signal relief. Oil and gas price formation remain linked through LNG cargo economics and global demand sentiment, and a volatile Hormuz corridor keeps upside risk live heading into winter procurement. Businesses renewing fixed contracts over the next quarter should treat this as a pause, not a reversal.

• Brent crude: $108.52/barrel, down 1.22% on the day
• WTI crude: $101.28/barrel, down 0.13%
• Gulf crude flows: ~8.5 million bpd last week versus over 20 million bpd the week prior, per Kpler
• Confirmed vessel incidents: at least 10 in the past week
• US executive order waiving select Russian export sanctions, signed Friday

SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop flagged that Iran may intensify attacks ahead of the 3 November US midterm elections, which would keep the Hormuz premium embedded in forward pricing rather than unwinding it. Adding to the geopolitical mix, Bloomberg noted that President Trump signed an executive order on Friday waiving certain sanctions and tariffs on Russian exports, tied to a deal with President Putin to bring in Russian diesel starting at roughly 2.3 million barrels this month, rising to about 7.6 million barrels monthly. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration will take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact. Phillip Nova's Priyanka Sachdeva described the move as an attempt to steady prices before the midterms, arguing it does little to resolve the Hormuz disruptions directly.

Watch the 60-day review window on the Russian sanctions waiver and any further Hormuz incidents, both of which will shape whether Brent retests last Friday's five-month high or settles lower into UK winter contract renewals.