Brent holds at $83.54 as Iran sets conditions on Hormuz reopening

Brent crude futures traded at $83.54 per barrel, down 1 cent by 06 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $78.03. The flat session followed a sharp reversal of earlier gains, leaving both benchmarks little changed after a volatile week.

That calm sits on top of a heavy fall. Both benchmarks dropped more than 7% the previous week on hopes that Iran and Oman were nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the channel that carried a fifth of the world's oil before the conflict. Reuters reported that Iran called the Oman talks 'final stages' on Sunday, but Tehran maintained the waterway would only reopen once Washington met further demands, including compensation for earlier attacks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran would not restart talks while the US continued to violate an interim agreement struck in June.

The chart below shows Brent over recent months, against which last week's 7% drop and the current flat session can be read.

What this means for UK buyers

For UK commercial energy buyers, the read-across runs through gas and power sentiment rather than oil directly. A calmer crude market takes some heat out of the geopolitical risk premium, which has been feeding forward gas and power curves since the conflict began. But the premium has not gone: it is priced on the assumption that Hormuz reopens cleanly, and any breakdown reverses that quickly.

Several supply threats remain live:

• The Iran-aligned Houthis said they struck Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery on Sunday
• ADNOC reported 15 of its vessels had been attacked transiting Hormuz since the conflict began
• Saudi Arabia signed a defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan two days before the refinery strike
• Iran and the US are not currently in talks, per Reuters
• Compensation demands remain a precondition for any reopening

The BBC reported that President Trump has warned Iran it will be 'hit very hard' if the strait is not opened, a sign the standoff carries escalation risk as well as resolution potential. The Guardian noted that last week's fall in oil and gas prices was driven largely by strait-reopening hopes, which underlines how fast the move could unwind if those talks collapse.

What to watch next: the Oman-brokered negotiations and whether Tehran's conditions harden or soften. A clean path to unrestricted shipping would press prices lower, while a collapse or fresh supply disruption would reinstate the risk premium at speed. Buyers on flexible contracts have room to hold; those approaching renewal should track the Hormuz headlines against their decision dates rather than the daily Brent print.