Diesel cracks hit record highs as Brent holds near two-week low near $100

Brent crude futures rose 1.34% to $100.58 a barrel by 1303 GMT on Wednesday, recovering from a low of $97.36, the weakest level since 8 September. West Texas Intermediate climbed 65 cents to $91.17. The headline crude figure masks a sharper story underneath: the premium of European low-sulphur gasoil to Brent has reached an all-time high of approximately $95 a barrel, a gap that matters far more to UK buyers than the crude price itself.

The diesel spike follows comments from Donald Trump, who voiced support for a US diesel export ban intended to bring down domestic pump prices. The Guardian reported that Europe has grown increasingly reliant on US diesel and jet fuel imports since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupted Middle Eastern supply routes. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said Brent 'is supported by rising gasoil prices amid growing concerns that the U.S. may implement a diesel export ban,' though analysts caution a ban would do little to ease prices and could worsen global supply strain.

The chart below shows Brent over the last six months, giving context for how close current levels sit to the two-week low even as diesel cracks diverge sharply from crude.

What this means for UK buyers

For commercial buyers on fixed-term fuel and heating oil contracts, the crude and diesel markets have decoupled. Brent sits near a two-week low on improving Gulf supply, but diesel costs are being driven by a separate, US-policy-driven squeeze that a falling crude price will not offset. Fleet operators, hauliers, and any business with diesel generation or backup power exposure should treat crack spreads, not the crude benchmark, as the number to watch this quarter.

• Brent crude ($100.58/barrel, up 1.34% on the day)
• WTI crude ($91.17/barrel, up 0.72%)
• European low-sulphur gasoil-to-Brent premium (approximately $95/barrel, a record)
• US policy decision on a potential diesel export ban
• Saudi East-West Pipeline restart to Yanbu port
• US crude inventories (up 1.8 million barrels for the week ending 18 September, against expectations of a draw)

The supply side is easing elsewhere. Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea on Tuesday after a shutdown since 11 September following drone attacks blamed on Iraqi militia, and also offered extra barrels to Asian refiners from ports outside the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq's oil minister said the country is now exporting over 3 million barrels per day and aims to lift Turkey-routed exports beyond 600,000 barrels daily. A senior Iranian official told Reuters the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within a week if the US eases military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports.

The next fortnight hinges on two separate tracks: whether Washington follows through on a diesel export ban, which would tighten European diesel supply further regardless of crude direction, and whether Gulf diplomatic progress holds enough to keep crude near current lows. Buyers with diesel exposure should watch crack spreads independently of Brent, and treat any US policy announcement as the more immediate cost driver.