German storage at 48% as Uniper warns on winter gas prices

Uniper's chief executive Michael Lewis told reporters after the company's first-half results that gas will stay at €50 to €60/MWh while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping. For German storage to reach its 70% November target, Lewis said, prices need to fall from current levels.

The pressure is structural. The conflict involving Iran has pushed prices up sharply, and as Reuters reported, that has meant more gas is being sold than injected into storage. Summer is when European operators normally fill caverns at lower prices; the US-Iran standoff has broken that pattern, and efforts to reopen the strait, a critical route for liquefied natural gas (LNG), stalled again on Monday.

As of 09 August, German storage sat at just 48% full, down from 64% a year earlier and below the 59% average across the European Union. That gap is what worries buyers heading into winter.

What this means for UK buyers

The UK does not draw on German caverns directly, but continental storage sets the tone for the wider European gas complex, and NBP tracks TTF closely. Thin German stocks going into the cold months raise the risk of a firmer curve through winter, which feeds into the fixed prices you are quoted now.

NBP day-ahead across the last 12 months sets the context for UK buyers reading these continental storage signals into the prices they are quoted now.

Here is what shapes the picture from here:

• German storage fill rate (currently 48%, target 70% by November)
• The status of the Strait of Hormuz and LNG transit
• US-Iran negotiations, which stalled on Monday
• TTF and NBP front-month settlements
• EU-wide storage against the 59% average

The BBC reported that gas and oil prices climbed and shares fell on fears the conflict could escalate, which tells you the market is pricing a risk premium rather than a confirmed supply loss. That distinction matters: premiums unwind quickly if the strait reopens, but they can also build fast if talks collapse.

Lewis was blunt about the cost, saying the high prices are 'detrimental to our customers, the industry, and our economy'. For UK commercial buyers, the read-across is caution on locking long-dated fixed contracts at the top of a geopolitically inflated curve, while flex arrangements carry exposure to further spikes if the strait stays shut.

Watch two things through the autumn: whether German injections recover enough to close the gap on the 70% target, and whether the Hormuz route reopens. Either could move the winter curve materially, in either direction.