Hormuz corridor risk lifts Brent to $83.34, NBP in focus for UK gas

Oil firmed for a second session on Friday as concerns over access to the Strait of Hormuz outweighed earlier hopes of a diplomatic settlement. By 0634 GMT, Brent crude futures were up 85 cents, or 1.03%, at $83.34 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added 52 cents, or 0.67%, to $77.81. The move follows Thursday's surge of more than $3 a barrel, though both benchmarks remain on course for a weekly decline of about 8%.

The trigger is a draft bill under review by an Iranian parliamentary committee. Fars news agency reported that the proposal would restrict U.S., Israeli, and other vessels deemed threatening from the strait, with fines for violators reaching up to 20% of cargo value. Iran and Oman have separately floated a transit-fee arrangement: Iran is reportedly seeking 5% to 7% of cargo value, Oman around 3%, and the U.S. is pushing for no fees. Roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) moved through the strait before the war began in February.

The chart below shows Brent over recent months, against which the latest move to $83.34 can be read.

What this means for UK buyers

The strait's status feeds directly into European gas via LNG flows, so UK buyers should read this as a gas-and-power signal, not just an oil one. Lin Ye of Rystad Energy said prices are pricing in 'a controlled corridor rather than a return to normal operations', which caps the downside even as diplomatic talk continues. For flex customers, the 8% weekly fall gives some room, but the corridor risk argues against assuming a clean return to prewar levels.

Watch the following through the coming sessions:

• Brent front-month (currently $83.34/bbl)
• WTI front-month ($77.81/bbl)
• The Iranian committee's decision on the draft transit bill
• LNG cargo routing and any insurance or sanctions friction on strait fees
• NBP and Season-ahead UK gas response to LNG-flow risk

The Guardian reported that oil and gas are unlikely to return to prewar price levels for months even if the strait reopens, a reminder that a headline agreement would not immediately reset the curve. Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted the market remains unsure what steps are needed to finalise any deal, which is why sentiment has swung sharply within a single week. Adding to the noise, Yemen's Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on Saudi positions in Marib and Hadramout on Thursday.

The near-term direction hinges on whether the Iranian committee advances the bill and whether the fee structure can survive U.S. sanctions and insurer requirements. Until that clears, expect the curve to stay sensitive to Hormuz headlines, and treat any dip toward prewar levels as fragile rather than settled.