UK buyers face winter risk as Brent holds above $100 on Iran strikes

Brent crude futures fell 0.7% to $100.50 a barrel by 06 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 0.5% to $95.58. The dip is modest against the bigger picture: Brent has risen almost 30% since early August, and Reuters reports the benchmark has held above $100 continuously since 3 September, according to LSEG data covering roughly two-thirds of global crude supply. For UK buyers watching import costs, the direction of travel matters more than a single day's fall.

The latest leg up follows the most serious escalation yet in the Gulf. Iran said on Wednesday it had struck 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz, a response to the United States sinking five Iranian oil tankers, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned it will escalate further against any renewed U.S. assault. President Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. could target Iran's Pickaxe Mountain facility, and urged Tehran toward restraint. Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet said the renewed confrontation has reloaded the geopolitical risk premium built into crude prices.

What this means for UK energy buyers

The chart below tracks Brent crude over the past six months, showing how the current price sits against the run-up since early August.

A sustained Brent premium above $100 does not stay contained to fuel forecourts. Oil-indexed contracts, freight costs, and LNG cargo pricing all take a cue from Brent, and NBP gas typically firms in sympathy when Gulf supply risk rises, particularly heading into a winter procurement window. Businesses renewing fixed contracts over the next quarter should treat this as a live input to budget planning, not background noise.

A few figures anchor the scale of the risk:

• Brent crude: $100.50/barrel, down 0.7% on the day but up nearly 30% since early August
• WTI crude: $95.58/barrel, down 0.5%
• Strait of Hormuz throughput: previously around a fifth of global oil and gas supply, now well below pre-conflict levels
• Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia intensifying, adding pressure on Red Sea export routes
• Dated Brent benchmark above $100 continuously since 3 September, per LSEG data

Gulf shipping routes are under compounding stress, not single-point risk. With Hormuz volumes already depressed, Iran-aligned Houthi militants have stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia, squeezing the Red Sea as an alternative corridor for Gulf exports. Bloomberg reports oil traders are gathering in Singapore as the $100 level draws fresh attention to how durable this premium proves to be.

Whether $100 holds or fades depends heavily on China. ING analysts noted that Chinese crude purchases have picked up after a period of weak demand, which is already lifting physical crude markets; continued Chinese buying would amplify any further Gulf disruption, while a pullback in imports could take the edge off the current rally. UK buyers should watch both the next Hormuz incident and Chinese import data as the two swing factors most likely to move Brent, and by extension NBP and power forward curves, over the coming weeks.