UK non-commodity charge · Renewables and capacity · Electricity
Capacity Market supplier charge
Latest published rate, who sets it, and where it is forecast to go.
What Capacity Market supplier charge is, who sets the rate, what the revenue funds and where it is heading. Rates come from the Purely Energy non-commodity cost data hub; forecasts are our own.
Roughly 2 to 3% of a typical UK business electricity bill
Capacity Market supplier charge: what it is, who charges it, and what it pays for
What it is
The Capacity Market supplier charge charge in plain English
Pays power stations and demand-side response to be available during winter peaks. Ensures the lights stay on during cold snaps. Based on T-4/T-1 auction clearing prices.
Introduced 2014 (Energy Act 2013). T-4 auctions run 4 years ahead.
Who charges it
The body that sets the rate
EMR Settlement Limited (based on DESNZ/NESO auction clearing prices)
Unit
p/kWh
Applies to
All electricity supplies (weighted to winter peak demand)
What it pays for
Where the revenue ends up
Security of supply, keeping generators available for peak demand
Share of typical bill
2 to 3%
EMR Settlement's Capacity Market supplier-charge rates put the levy at roughly 2 to 3% of a typical non-domestic electricity bill.
Published rate history
| Financial year | Rate | Year on year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | 0.1960p/kWh | - | Published |
| 2021/22 | 0.2220p/kWh | +13.3% | Published |
| 2022/23 | 0.2950p/kWh | +32.9% | Published |
| 2023/24 | 0.3800p/kWh | +28.8% | Published |
| 2024/25 | 0.4500p/kWh | +18.4% | Published |
Forecast trajectory
Forecasts from our non-commodity cost model. P10, P50 and P90 are the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile outcomes; P50 is the central estimate.
| Year | P10 | P50 | P90 | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | - | 0.5000 | - | - | |
| 2026 | - | 0.5400 | - | - | |
| 2026-27 | 0.5940 | 0.6400 | 0.6800 | high | Based on published T-4 auction results and EMR Settlement methodology |
| 2027 | - | 0.5700 | - | - | |
| 2027-28 | 0.6800 | 0.7300 | 0.7800 | high | Direct calculation from known auction results using established cost recovery methods |
| 2028 | - | 0.5900 | - | - | |
| 2028-29 | 0.7500 | 0.8100 | 0.8700 | high | Reflects £63/kW/year T-4 auction result with standard allocation methodology |
| 2029 | - | 0.6100 | - | - | |
| 2029-30 | 0.8000 | 0.8800 | 0.9600 | med | Assumes continued thermal retirements and demand growth patterns |
| 2030 | - | 0.6300 | - | - | |
| 2030-31 | 0.8500 | 0.9500 | 1.050 | med | Electrification demand growth with uncertain capacity replacement timing |
| 2031 | - | 0.6426 | - | - | |
| 2031-32 | 0.7500 | 0.9400 | 1.130 | low | Regulatory uncertainty and potential market design changes post-2030 |
| 2032 | - | 0.6555 | - | - | |
| 2032-33 | 0.7000 | 0.9200 | 1.140 | low | Speculative given no auction data and policy uncertainty |
| 2033 | - | 0.6686 | - | - | |
| 2033-34 | 0.6800 | 0.9100 | 1.140 | low | Placeholder estimate with wide uncertainty bands |
| 2034 | - | 0.6819 | - | - | |
| 2034-35 | 0.6900 | 0.9200 | 1.150 | low | Highly uncertain given potential fundamental market structure changes |
Capacity Market supplier charge FAQs
What is the Capacity Market supplier charge charge?
Pays power stations and demand-side response to be available during winter peaks. Ensures the lights stay on during cold snaps. Based on T-4/T-1 auction clearing prices.
Who sets the Capacity Market supplier charge rate?
The Capacity Market supplier charge rate is set by EMR Settlement Limited (based on DESNZ/NESO auction clearing prices).
What does Capacity Market supplier charge pay for?
Capacity Market supplier charge revenue supports Security of supply, keeping generators available for peak demand.
What is the latest published Capacity Market supplier charge rate?
For 2024/25, the published Capacity Market supplier charge rate is 0.4500 p/kWh.
What is the Capacity Market supplier charge forecast?
Our latest forecast for 2025 is 0.5000 p/kWh.
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Rate data from the Purely Energy non-commodity cost data hub (dh.purelyenergy.co.uk). Published rates come from statutory publications by the body listed above; forecasts are modelled from published guidance and market trends, so treat P50 as a central estimate and use P10/P90 for sensitivity. Primary source