Brent holds near $76 as Hormuz transit stalls, up 6% on the week

Brent crude is heading for a weekly gain of around 6% despite easing on Friday, as disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz keeps a supply risk premium in the price. Brent futures slipped 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $76.11 a barrel by 10 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $71.87. For the week, WTI is projected to rise about 5%.

The move follows a sharp escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Reuters reported that Iranian forces struck US military facilities in Gulf states on Thursday after US airstrikes on Iran's southern coast and eastern regions, with further explosions reported near Bushehr. Ship-tracking data showed tanker traffic through the strait near a standstill after an Iranian attack on a Qatari LNG vessel near Oman triggered further strikes. The Strait of Hormuz carried roughly 20% of global daily oil and gas supply before the conflict began.

The chart below shows Brent over the recent period, against which this week's move and the embedded risk premium can be read.

What this means for UK buyers

This is a global oil story, but it does not stay contained to crude. Brent sets the reference for oil-linked gas contracts, and a firmer curve feeds through to NBP gas and, in turn, UK wholesale power. If you are approaching a renewal, the risk premium now embedded in the curve raises the cost of locking a fixed price at the top of a spike.

Watch these points as the situation develops:

• Brent front-month (currently $76.11 a barrel)
• WTI front-month ($71.87)
• Tanker transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz
• Any US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure specifically
• The International Energy Agency's 2026 surplus forecast

The Financial Times noted that the escalation threatens the substantial oil market surplus the IEA had forecast for next year. Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights said prices had retreated from midweek highs but that a significant risk premium remained while Hormuz transit stayed near halted with no clear return to normal operations.

There is a counterweight. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the absence of fresh overnight strikes was capping the upside, while ANZ's Daniel Hynes pointed to relief that the Trump administration had chosen not to target Iranian energy infrastructure. President Trump said this week he did not expect the war to resume, adding that 'anything that happens will be over very quickly.'

The near-term direction hinges on whether Hormuz transit resumes and whether energy infrastructure stays off the target list. If tankers return to the strait, the risk premium should unwind quickly; a further strike would push it the other way. For flex and fixed buyers alike, holding through the current volatility is worth weighing against locking at an elevated point in the curve.