European gas nears war-onset high, ICIS cuts 2026 LNG forecast

The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the European gas benchmark, momentarily passed €60/MWh on Monday before easing to around €57/MWh later in the session. That level approaches the peak seen at the onset of US-Iran tensions, and it follows expanded US military action alongside Iranian strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait.

The move is driven by supply, not demand. Analysts at Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS) warned that the conflict is delaying the expected recovery of Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports during the summer storage window, the period when Europe should be refilling for winter. Only 26 LNG cargoes have moved eastward from the Gulf since the conflict began on 28 February, against a typical 90 to 100 each month. ICIS has cut its 2026 global LNG supply forecast from 441 million tonnes to 431 million. Reuters reported that Europe now faces a storage scramble as the Iran conflict tightens supply.

The chart below shows NBP day-ahead gas, which moves in step with the TTF benchmark driving this rally, giving UK buyers the context behind firming renewal quotes.

What this means for UK buyers

The UK is not insulated. Jess Ralston of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit noted that gas prices returning to war-onset levels shows domestic action has 'minimal influence' on costs, because Britain remains tied to international markets and to volatility from distant conflicts. For your business, that means renewal quotes referencing the forward curve will firm in step with TTF, and fixed-price offers will price in the winter risk premium.

Watch these pressure points through the refill season:

• European storage at under 54% full, down from 64% a year ago
• The EU 80% storage target, which ICIS says is still reachable by late November
• Autumn refill costs near €54/MWh, rising toward €60/MWh on a cold start
• Qatari LNG cargo flows through the Strait of Hormuz
• Brent crude, which briefly topped $90 a barrel on Sunday

Bloomberg reported that prices ticked higher as US threats against Iranian infrastructure raised escalation risk. ICIS added that holding prices around €60/MWh could require 'potentially costly state intervention' to secure supply, though its models still show storage targets met by late November.

The Strait of Hormuz carried roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows before the conflict, so shipping risk there sets the direction for both fuels. If diplomatic talks via intermediaries hold, expect the risk premium to unwind. If a colder-than-normal winter arrives before storage recovers, the refill cost climbs and UK forward power follows gas upward. Buyers with renewals in the next two quarters should track the storage percentage weekly.