European gas storage hits 15-year low, NBP winter risk builds

European gas storage is currently around 66% full, the lowest level for this time of year in 15 years and roughly 12 percentage points below last year, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe cited by Bloomberg. Storage typically peaks near 83% in early November; this year's estimates suggest a peak of only 70% to 75%. Germany's facilities, the largest in Europe, sit at 54%, while the Netherlands, a key regional hub, is at 48%.

The shortfall traces back to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz over six months ago, which has disrupted roughly 20% of global LNG supply. S&P Global reports that Gulf exports, mainly from Qatar and the UAE, fell more than 85% between March and August compared with the prior year, and QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure suspension on LNG deliveries until early November. Asian demand for summer cooling pulled cargoes away from Europe just as the continent needed to refill storage, and US and Canadian LNG output, up 18% (about 27 bcm) year-on-year per the International Energy Agency, has offset only around 75% of the Middle East losses.

The chart below tracks NBP day-ahead prices over the past year, giving UK buyers a reference point for how thin storage and disrupted LNG flows are already showing up in the curve.

What this means for UK buyers

UK wholesale gas and power prices track the European benchmark closely, so a thin storage cushion across the Channel raises the odds of sharp NBP moves through the winter months. Businesses renewing fixed contracts now are pricing risk that didn't exist a year ago; those on flexible or index-linked deals should expect more volatile monthly settlements. Sectors with high gas or power intensity, manufacturing, food processing, data centres, are most exposed if the curve steepens further.

• Storage refill shortfall versus the 15-year average (roughly 12 percentage points)
• Extended QatarEnergy force majeure on LNG cargoes to early November
• Rising dependence on spot LNG and neighbouring pipeline imports
• US and Canadian LNG growth only partially offsetting Gulf losses
• European Commission position that supply security is not at immediate risk this winter

Context matters here: even at €75/MWh, prices remain well below the €300/MWh-plus peaks seen during the 2022 crisis, a point the European Commission has made in downplaying immediate supply risk. But Bruegel estimates put Europe's 2025 gas spend at €117 billion despite consumption running around 17% below pre-crisis levels, and current pricing implies import costs rising again this year. That's a cost problem more than a volume problem, and it's the cost side that flows through to UK wholesale contracts.

Watch how storage levels track into October and whether Gulf LNG flows resume before QatarEnergy's early-November deadline; either could shift the NBP winter curve materially, and buyers with renewals due in the next two quarters should treat current pricing as a floor rather than a ceiling.