Gulf crude exports hit 12M bpd in July, then slow as Hormuz strikes resume
By Harvey Rowlinson, Founder and Director, Purely Energy
Published 20 July 2026
Gulf crude and condensate exports climbed to 12 million barrels per day in the first half of July, their highest since before the late-February Iran war, before renewed conflict began pulling flows back through the Strait of Hormuz.
Exports of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran rose roughly 16% on June's daily average to reach 12 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of July, according to Kpler shipping data. Vortexa put the figure higher still, at 13.06 million bpd. Even after the rebound, volumes sit about 32% below the pre-war peak of 17.6 million bpd recorded in February.
The recovery followed a mid-June interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping route that carries a large share of the world's seaborne oil and gas. That eased supply concerns and pulled prices down. The deal collapsed in early July over disagreements on managing the waterway. As Bloomberg reported, Saudi shipments had approached pre-war levels as Hormuz flows rose, and Vortexa noted Iraq posted the largest month-on-month gain while UAE exports fell back from June's record.
What this means for UK buyers
The direction of travel matters more than the single print. With both sides resuming strikes, daily transits through the strait dropped to just three commodity tankers on Thursday, the lowest since May. Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball flagged a slowdown in activity, suggesting producers may need to cut output, which would in turn reduce shipped volumes. For UK commercial buyers, that reintroduces a geopolitical risk premium into Brent and, by extension, into forward gas and power curves.
The chart below shows Brent over recent months, against which the export swings and renewed Hormuz risk can be read.
Wholesale market chart
Brent Crude
Last 7 days, settlement data
100.7USD/bbl
+19.0% over 7 days
Why this window: Last 7 days — 18% range, 19% net move higher. Tight window picked so the week's price action is visible.
Watch these pressure points:
- Daily tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz (three on Thursday)
- Saudi rerouting: 75% of its 5.29 million bpd now shipped via the Red Sea port of Yanbu
- Iranian direction to Yemen's Houthis to be ready to disrupt Red Sea traffic
- Any U.S. strike on Iranian energy infrastructure
- Kpler and Vortexa export prints for the second half of July
Reuters reported on Thursday that Iran has told the Houthis to prepare to disrupt Red Sea traffic if the U.S. targets its energy infrastructure, a second chokepoint alongside Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's shift to Yanbu shows exporters are already hedging their own routing risk, which supports volumes but raises freight and insurance costs that feed through to landed prices.
If transits stay depressed and the interim deal is not restored, expect the risk premium to hold or build into the front of the Brent curve. Buyers on flexible contracts should track the second-half export data and Red Sea headlines before committing volume; those with renewals in the coming quarter should treat the current calm in headline prices as conditional on the strait staying open.
How we produced this article
This article was AI-drafted from public market reporting by Harvey Rowlinson on 20 July 2026. It is scheduled for its next review on 20 July 2027.
Sources
- Gulf crude exports increased in July, but shipments are decelerating due to renewed conflicts., Reuters (accessed 20 July 2026)
- Saudi Oil Exports Approach Pre-War Levels as Hormuz Flows Rise, Bloomberg (accessed 20 July 2026)
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