LNG tankers return to Strait of Hormuz as 22 Japan-linked ships clear Gulf

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint carrying roughly a fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude, is picking up again after recent Iranian attacks and US retaliation thinned traffic. Ship-tracking data cited by Reuters shows at least five ballast LNG tankers have navigated into the strait recently, including GasLog Shanghai and the QatarEnergy-associated carriers Al Samriya, Al Dafna, Al Gattara, and Al Rayyan.

The shift matters because the strait sits between Qatar, the source of much of the LNG that ultimately reaches European terminals, and the open sea. According to the Financial Times, GasLog Shanghai and Al Rayyan likely entered the strait overnight, having been tracked outside it on 9 July. The pattern of risk has narrowed: Xavier Tang, a senior analyst at Vortexa, noted that Iran is now targeting vessels using the 'Omani route' rather than all traffic, which may push more ships onto the 'Iranian route' or through the strait under reduced tracking.

What this means for UK buyers

For UK commercial buyers, the read-through is indirect but real. Any sustained disruption to Qatari LNG feeds the global balance that sets National Balancing Point (NBP) prices, so resumed flows ease one of the supply-side fears that had firmed the forward curve. The effect is partial: much of the risk premium was already priced in, and a single week of transits does not remove the geopolitical tail.

The chart below shows NBP day-ahead prices over recent months, the curve against which any easing of the Hormuz risk premium will register for UK buyers.

Watch these signals as the situation develops:

• Ballast LNG carrier transits through Hormuz (five confirmed recently)
• Japan-linked vessels remaining in the Gulf (down to four)
• Very Large Crude Carrier movements (Nissos Kea entered, Lila Vadinar exited)
• QatarEnergy loading schedules from Ras Laffan
• Any renewed targeting of commercial shipping on either route

The scale of the pullback is visible in the Japanese fleet data. The Telegraph reported that 22 Japan-linked vessels, including six large crude tankers, passed through the strait between 7 and 9 July. Japan's transport minister Yasushi Kaneko confirmed only four vessels now remain in the Gulf, down from 45 ships carrying around 1,100 crew at the start of the conflict.

The question for your renewal calendar is whether flows hold. If transits stay steady, the geopolitical premium on NBP and Season contracts should continue to unwind; a fresh attack on a commercial carrier would reverse that quickly. For buyers weighing fixed versus flexible positions this quarter, the direction of the next few days of tracking data is the thing to watch, not the headline count alone.