OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth to 780,000 bpd in third downgrade

OPEC has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 780,000 bpd, down from 970,000 bpd previously. Reuters reported the revision, the third in a row, based on a copy of the group's monthly report. The cut reflects a cautious read on how quickly consumption recovers after months of disrupted Middle East supply.

The backdrop is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the passage that carries millions of barrels a day, effectively shut for several months by the Iran conflict. Production is now recovering after a temporary peace agreement between Iran and the United States, though fresh military activity is raising concern over shipments. OPEC struck a steadier tone on the wider economy, noting in its report that 'the global economic growth dynamic in the first half of 2026 has remained broadly resilient', and it raised its 2027 demand growth forecast to 1.94 million bpd, up 210,000 bpd.

What this means for UK buyers

The chart below shows Brent crude over recent months, against which OPEC's third demand downgrade and the Hormuz supply risk can be read.

Oil sits upstream of the gas and power benchmarks you buy against, so a softer demand outlook tends to cap the upside on forward curves rather than move them sharply. The offsetting risk is supply: a downgraded demand view alongside constrained Middle East output leaves the curve exposed to headline swings if the Hormuz situation deteriorates again. For buyers, that argues for watching supply risk more closely than the demand number itself.

Points worth tracking through the rest of 2026:

• OPEC's 2026 demand growth figure (now 780,000 bpd)
• OPEC+ crude output (36.28 million bpd in June)
• Strait of Hormuz shipment stability
• The Iran-United States ceasefire and any renewed military action
• OPEC+ progress towards agreed production quotas

S&P Global noted OPEC's economic optimism for the second half of the year, with the group suggesting easing geopolitical tensions could support growth if energy markets and trade routes stabilise. OPEC+ output averaged 36.28 million bpd in June, roughly 3 million bpd above May, as Gulf producers restored volumes halted by the conflict. The May figure includes data from the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC and OPEC+ on 01 May.

What this changes for the near term: the demand downgrade eases some pressure on the forward curve, but the Hormuz supply picture remains the swing factor. If shipments hold and OPEC+ closes the gap to quota, expect the curve to soften; renewed disruption would reverse that quickly.