Qatar supplies 20% of global LNG, force majeure now runs to October

QatarEnergy, which supplies roughly 20% of the global LNG market, has prolonged the force majeure covering deliveries to customers in South Korea, India, and Bangladesh. Reuters reported that notices originally set to expire in August and early September have now been pushed to mid-September, with trade sources expecting a further extension into October. Force majeure is a contractual clause that releases a supplier from delivery obligations when events outside its control, here the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, make performance impossible.

The trigger is the closure of the strait and recent attacks on tankers transiting it, which forced Qatar to halt liquefaction, declare force majeure, and suspend exports. Bloomberg reported that QatarEnergy is preparing to carry the force majeure into October. Petrobangla's acting chairman Abdul Mannan told Reuters the uncertainty is pushing Bangladesh towards more expensive spot cargoes and government-to-government deals, and warned that sustained disruption would raise the state energy subsidy burden.

What this means for UK buyers

The UK imports no LNG from Qatar directly in the way Asian buyers do, but the National Balancing Point (NBP) trades in a connected global market. When Asian buyers chase scarce spot cargoes, LNG that might otherwise arrive at UK terminals is diverted east, tightening supply into the winter. If you are approaching a renewal, the risk sits in the forward season, not the prompt.

NBP day-ahead over the past year frames how these diverted cargoes could feed into the winter curve UK buyers are watching.

Watch these signals over the coming weeks:

• Duration of the QatarEnergy force majeure (currently mid-September, possible extension to October)
• Whether QELM/QET charter further vessels from their fleet of nearly 70 carriers
• Asian spot LNG premiums pulling cargoes away from northwest Europe
• NBP winter-ahead contracts as the northern hemisphere heating season nears
• Any easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz

The tanker activity is the clearer tell. S&P Global and shipbrokers cited by Reuters note that QatarEnergy's trading arms QELM and QET are offering vessels on spot deals of 30 to 90 days through October. Ikram Elloumi, director of research at Wood Mackenzie, said at least nine QELM/QET carriers have been sub-chartered to third parties including Chevron, BP, EnBW, Cheniere, and Trafigura, even as freight rates fall. Fixing vessels into a weakening rate market suggests Qatar is prioritising fleet utilisation over waiting for recovery, a decision that reads as a bet on prolonged disruption.

What this changes for the renewal calendar: if you have flexible volume or a decision window in the next month, treat the winter curve as the exposed leg. A resolution at the strait would ease the picture quickly, but the extension of the force majeure through mid-September, and the tanker leases through October, point the other way for now.