Strait of Hormuz tension pushes Brent to one-month high of $85.31

Brent crude futures gained 58 cents, or 0.7%, to reach $85.31 a barrel by 0630 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $79.69. The move extends Tuesday's rally, when oil jumped 2% to a one-month high as disruption intensified in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported the increase followed Trump's decision to reinstate a naval blockade on all Iranian ports.

The driver is escalation, not a physical shortfall. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and Iran has again announced its closure following renewed hostilities. The BBC reported the market reaction after Trump signalled an extended blockade. The US military said it launched fresh strikes on Wednesday to degrade Iranian capabilities involved in attacks on commercial shipping.

The chart below shows Brent over recent months, against which the latest push to a one-month high can be read.

What this means for UK buyers

For UK commercial energy buyers, oil itself is not your contract, but the risk premium it carries feeds through to gas and power. NBP gas and UK baseload power tend to firm when Hormuz supply is threatened, because LNG cargoes compete on the same routes. If you are approaching renewal, the near-term curve is more likely to steepen than soften while this plays out.

Watch these signals over the coming sessions:

• Brent front-month (currently $85.31 a barrel)
• WTI front-month ($79.69 a barrel)
• Any confirmed closure of the Strait of Hormuz
• US or Iranian sanctions announcements
• Trump's stated intent to hit energy targets 'last'

The physical market remains well-supplied for now. Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, noted that further escalation in the strait or additional sanctions against Iranian exports could quickly shift sentiment and lift risk premiums. June Goh at Sparta Commodities cautioned that the scale of the rise may be capped as the market waits for policy moves from Washington and Tehran.

The Guardian reported that UK exports to the Middle East have already fallen sharply as the conflict widens, a reminder that the impact extends beyond the energy desk. Iran's army said it carried out drone strikes on US positions at Jordan's Azraq base, with no immediate Pentagon response confirmed.

What to watch: whether the memorandum of understanding signed last month holds, or whether energy infrastructure becomes a direct target. If Trump follows through on hitting energy assets, the risk premium now sitting in Brent moves into gas and power forwards, and fixed-price renewal windows narrow accordingly.