UK Non-Commodity Charge · Auto-generated
Capacity Market Supplier Obligation
Current rates, who sets them, and where they are forecast to go.
What Capacity Market Supplier Obligationis, who sets the rate, what the revenue funds, and where it's heading. Sourced daily from the Purely Energy non-commodity cost data hub.
Roughly 2 to 3% of a typical UK business electricity bill
Capacity Market Supplier Obligation: what it is, who charges it, and what it pays for
What it is
The Capacity Market Supplier Obligation charge in plain English
Pays power stations and demand-side response to be available during winter peaks. Ensures the lights stay on during cold snaps. Based on T-4/T-1 auction clearing prices.
Introduced 2014 (Energy Act 2013). T-4 auctions run 4 years ahead.
Who charges it
The body that sets the rate
EMR Settlement Limited (based on DESNZ/NESO auction clearing prices)
Unit
p/kWh
Applies to
UK business electricity
What it pays for
Where the revenue ends up
Security of supply, keeping generators available for peak demand
Share of typical bill
2 to 3%
EMR Settlement's Capacity Market supplier-obligation rates put the levy at roughly 2 to 3% of a typical non-domestic electricity bill.
Published rate history
| Financial year | Rate | YoY change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | 0.1960p/kWh | - | published |
| FY2021 | 0.2220p/kWh | +13.3% | published |
| FY2022 | 0.2950p/kWh | +32.9% | published |
| FY2023 | 0.3800p/kWh | +28.8% | published |
| FY2024 | 0.4500p/kWh | +18.4% | published |
Forecast trajectory
AI-assisted forecasts from our deep-research pipeline. P10, P50 and P90 are the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile outcomes; P50 is the central estimate.
| Year | P10 | P50 | P90 | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | - | 0.5000 | - | - | |
| 2026-27 | 0.5940 | 0.6400 | 0.6800 | high | Based on published T-4 auction results and EMR Settlement methodology |
| 2026 | - | 0.5400 | - | - | |
| 2027-28 | 0.6800 | 0.7300 | 0.7800 | high | Direct calculation from known auction results using established cost recovery methods |
| 2027 | - | 0.5700 | - | - | |
| 2028-29 | 0.7500 | 0.8100 | 0.8700 | high | Reflects £63/kW/year T-4 auction result with standard allocation methodology |
| 2028 | - | 0.5900 | - | - | |
| 2029-30 | 0.8000 | 0.8800 | 0.9600 | med | Assumes continued thermal retirements and demand growth patterns |
| 2029 | - | 0.6100 | - | - | |
| 2030-31 | 0.8500 | 0.9500 | 1.050 | med | Electrification demand growth with uncertain capacity replacement timing |
| 2030 | - | 0.6300 | - | - | |
| 2031-32 | 0.7500 | 0.9400 | 1.130 | low | Regulatory uncertainty and potential market design changes post-2030 |
| 2031 | - | 0.6426 | - | - | |
| 2032-33 | 0.7000 | 0.9200 | 1.140 | low | Speculative given no auction data and policy uncertainty |
| 2032 | - | 0.6555 | - | - | |
| 2033-34 | 0.6800 | 0.9100 | 1.140 | low | Placeholder estimate with wide uncertainty bands |
| 2033 | - | 0.6686 | - | - | |
| 2034-35 | 0.6900 | 0.9200 | 1.150 | low | Highly uncertain given potential fundamental market structure changes |
| 2034 | - | 0.6819 | - | - |
Capacity Market Supplier Obligation FAQs
What is the Capacity Market Supplier Obligation charge?
Pays power stations and demand-side response to be available during winter peaks. Ensures the lights stay on during cold snaps. Based on T-4/T-1 auction clearing prices.
Who sets the Capacity Market Supplier Obligation rate?
The Capacity Market Supplier Obligation rate is set by EMR Settlement Limited (based on DESNZ/NESO auction clearing prices).
What does Capacity Market Supplier Obligation pay for?
Capacity Market Supplier Obligation revenue supports Security of supply, keeping generators available for peak demand.
What is the current Capacity Market Supplier Obligation rate?
For financial year 2024, the published Capacity Market Supplier Obligation rate is 0.4500 p/kWh.
What is the Capacity Market Supplier Obligation forecast?
Our latest forecast for 2025 is 0.5000 p/kWh.
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Rate data sourced from the Purely Energy non-commodity cost data hub (dh.purelyenergy.co.uk). Published rates come from statutory publications by the body listed above. Forecasts are AI-generated from published guidance and market trends; treat P50 as a central estimate and reference P10/P90 for sensitivity.