ADNOC chief sets 2027 date for full Hormuz oil flow recovery

Al Jaber's assessment, delivered at an Atlantic Council event, sets a hard timeline on the disruption to a waterway that carries roughly 20% of global oil supply. 'Even if this conflict ends tomorrow, it would require at least four months to reach 80% of pre-conflict oil flows, and full recovery won't happen before the first or possibly second quarter of 2027,' he said. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described the near-blockage as the largest energy crisis on record.

Iran moved to assert control of the strait following US-Israeli strikes on Iranian territory that began on 28 February. Tehran subsequently launched attacks on vessels transiting the waterway and introduced checkpoints, inspections, and at times fees, creating what amounts to a de facto blockade. Iran has since extended its claimed zone of control to include the UAE's Gulf of Oman coastline, a development with direct consequences for Emirati crude exports. A pipeline running to the port of Fujairah has allowed some volumes to reach market, but it does not cover the full shortfall.

What the Hormuz disruption means for UK energy buyers

Brent over the last six months provides the price backdrop against which a 2027 recovery timeline needs to be read.

A multi-year constraint on Hormuz flows removes a significant volume of crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from global markets. For UK commercial buyers, the transmission mechanism runs through two channels: oil-linked LNG contracts that feed into UK wholesale gas prices at the National Balancing Point (NBP), and inflationary pressure on the broader economy that affects demand-side budgeting. Amin Nasser, chief executive of Aramco, has separately warned that oil markets may not stabilise until 2027 if current conditions persist beyond mid-June.

Key figures and pressure points buyers should track:

• Strait of Hormuz throughput (approximately 20% of global oil supply currently disrupted)
• NBP forward curves for Winter 2025 and Summer 2026, sensitive to LNG supply tightness
• Brent crude, where a sustained Hormuz constraint supports elevated prompt and forward pricing
• Fuel costs, up 30% since the conflict began according to Al Jaber
• Fertiliser prices, up 50%, a lead indicator for food-sector energy demand and inflation
• Airfare inflation at 25%, signalling economy-wide cost pass-through

Al Jaber also noted that nearly 80 nations have introduced emergency economic measures in roughly 80 days of conflict, underlining how quickly the supply shock has propagated into government policy. For buyers on fixed-price contracts already secured through to 2026, immediate exposure is limited. Those facing renewals in the second half of 2025 or early 2026 are pricing into a forward curve that now has a structural floor set by a 2027 recovery timeline.

The next decision point is mid-June: if Aramco's threshold date passes without a de-escalation, expect forward oil and LNG curves to firm further, with knock-on pressure on NBP season-ahead contracts. Buyers with flex purchasing agreements should review trigger levels against current forward prices before that date.