Brent extends 8% weekly loss as Iran wins oil export waivers

Brent crude opened the session at $82.30 a barrel and then reversed, settling $1.68 lower at $78.89 by 0633 GMT as the diplomatic track between Washington and Tehran firmed. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) front-month futures settled at $76 a barrel, down 60 cents ahead of expiry, with the more active August contract off 69 cents at $75.16. The fall extends a steep weekly move: Brent dropped more than 8% last week on expectations of additional supply.

The trigger was the conclusion of the first round of talks under a memorandum of understanding signed last week, intended to extend a fragile April ceasefire by at least 60 days. Reuters reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had obtained waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the release of some frozen assets, and a reconstruction plan. The BBC framed the outcome as a reported breakthrough, while the Financial Times noted prices fell once the talks closed without a return to hostilities.

The chart below shows Brent over recent months, against which last week's 8% move and the latest settlement can be read.

What this means for UK buyers

For UK commercial energy buyers, the read-across runs through gas and power forward curves rather than the pump. Crude weakness eases the cost backdrop for LNG cargoes and softens the risk premium that had been building on Strait of Hormuz headlines. If Iranian barrels return at scale, the supply picture loosens into a period of only moderate demand growth.

Watch these inputs over the next sessions:

• Brent front-month (currently $78.89), as the proxy for the global risk premium
• WTI August contract ($75.16), now the active US benchmark
• Iranian crude export volumes, with up to 1.5 million barrels per day potentially returning
• Strait of Hormuz shipping data, after a sharp drop in transits on Sunday
• The 60-day ceasefire timeline and any renewed strikes

The downside is not clean. Bloomberg and The Telegraph both flagged that the path to a durable deal remains fragile: Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed at least 20 people on Saturday, a day after a Hezbollah ceasefire took effect, and ING analysts warned of genuine risks of renewed hostilities inside the 60-day window. Iran had earlier signalled it would again close the Strait, citing violations of the interim agreement.

The supply-side response is already visible. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq have each raised offers to clients over the past week, and Iraq's deputy oil minister said the country will gradually restore output to between 4.2 million and 4.3 million barrels per day.

The next round of talks and any formal sanctions relief are the decision points. If waivers translate into sustained barrels, the curve softening that began last week continues; a single breakdown in the ceasefire would reprice the Hormuz premium quickly, so buyers on flexible contracts should keep renewal windows under review rather than assume the floor has settled.