European gasoline exports to US hit 252,000 bpd, lowest since 2020

European gasoline shipments to the US are falling into the peak summer driving season, and the numbers are concrete. In May, gasoline and blending component flows from Europe averaged 1.63 million bpd, down from 1.9 million bpd a year earlier and the lowest May figure since 2020. For the second quarter, exports are projected to average 252,000 bpd, with roughly 88% heading to East Coast ports. Reuters reported the decline, drawing on shipping data, traders, and analysts.

The mechanism is twofold: rising demand inside Europe and supply lost to refinery closures and the disruption caused by the Iran conflict. Energy Aspects analyst Rachel Lauffer expects European exports to stay below prior levels as closures reduce output, with demand across Europe's largest economies rising 120,000 bpd to 2.46 million bpd in June. Middle Eastern refineries, key producers of middle distillates, have shifted yields towards diesel and jet fuel, cutting the gasoline components reaching the wider market, according to Janiv Shah at Rystad Energy.

What this means for UK buyers

This is a product-market story, but the read-across to crude and refining margins matters for anyone tracking forward energy costs. Crude prices dropped to a three-month low after the US-Iran deal, and US retail gasoline fell below $4 a gallon for the first time since mid-April. The relief may be temporary: analysts warn that restoring normal supply could take months, keeping fuel markets tight through summer.

The chart below shows Brent crude over recent months, against which the post-deal three-month low and the tightening gasoline balance can be read.

The figures worth watching:

• European Q2 gasoline exports to the US (252,000 bpd, lowest since 2020)
• US gasoline inventories (215 million barrels as of 5 June, lowest June level since 2014)
• Energy Aspects' global gasoline deficit forecast (1 million bpd for May, 1.13 million bpd for June)
• Refinery yield shift towards middle distillates (jet fuel, diesel)
• US refinery utilisation, already near peak capacity

The Financial Times noted that refinery disruptions and the Middle East conflict have combined to tighten the global gasoline balance, while S&P Global Platts framed the thin European supply as putting fresh focus on US summer driving demand. Neil Crosby of Sparta Commodities cautioned that even with favourable political developments, a normal supply-demand balance is months away, which leaves current oversold prices exposed.

What to watch next: whether US inventories rebuild before the demand peak, and whether refiners ease the distillate pivot as margins shift. Shah at Rystad described the market as not structurally short but increasingly precarious, with World Cup travel a potential demand add just as supply tightens. The next monthly inventory and export prints will show whether the deficit narrows or widens into the summer.