Hormuz traffic falls to five vessels from 26 as Iran reasserts closure

Four Qatar-controlled liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers, the Wadi Al Sail, Mekaines, Al Sadd, and Mesaimeer, were tracked entering the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to shipping data from analytics firm Kpler. They are the first Qatari LNG carriers to take the route since the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran flared. The move came even after transits through the waterway fell to five vessels on Sunday from 26 the previous day, signalling that flows are testing the route rather than resuming at scale.

The drop followed Iran's announcement over the weekend that it had closed the strait again. On Saturday, Tehran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the waterway shut, citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, reversing a relaxation agreed last week under a 60-day extension of an April ceasefire with Washington. Reuters reported that QatarEnergy has seen a significant reduction in its LNG exports since the war began, and the producer did not respond to a request for comment.

What this means for UK gas buyers

NBP day-ahead over recent months provides the baseline against which any Hormuz-driven tightening in the LNG cargo pool would show up for UK buyers.

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Qatar is a major source of LNG cargoes that compete for European and UK delivery, so any sustained interruption to Hormuz transits tightens the global cargo pool and feeds through to NBP. The current picture is fragile rather than frozen: Platts noted that LNG shipping through Hormuz remains delicate as Qatari carriers test the route, which means the path can reopen and reclose with little notice. For buyers, that volatility is the story, not a single price level.

Watch these points over the coming sessions:

• Qatari LNG transit counts through Hormuz (four tankers entered Monday)
• Total strait traffic versus the weekend low of five vessels
• Whether Iran's closure holds or relaxes again under ceasefire talks
• NBP day-ahead and front-month response to cargo availability
• ADNOC and Gulf producer tenders offering loading inside or outside Hormuz

The scale of oil moving alongside LNG shows the route is not fully shut. U.S. Central Command reported that 55 merchant ships passed through the strait on Saturday carrying over 17 million barrels of oil, and the head of the National Iranian Oil Company said more than 25 million barrels of Iranian crude had crossed the blockade line since Monday. Bloomberg reported that Gulf producers including ADNOC have routed cargoes both inside and outside Hormuz, with two ADNOC-controlled LNG tankers delivering to India after recent dark voyages out of the strait.

If you are approaching a renewal, the near-term curve is exposed to headline risk from Hormuz rather than a confirmed supply loss. Fixed-price buyers locking in this week are paying for that uncertainty; flex buyers may prefer to hold and watch whether transit counts recover toward the weekend's pre-closure levels before committing volume.