US-Iran sanctions waiver runs to 21 August, easing NBP gas risk

Gulf gas shipping is restarting. Ship-tracking data shows seven ballast LNG tankers linked to QatarEnergy moving west into the Gulf for reloading, the highest volume of empty liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers through the strait since the conflict began. Two stranded supertankers also navigated the waterway on Tuesday, and traffic linked to Iran increased on Monday as US-Iran talks advanced.

The trigger was diplomatic. The first round of talks began on Sunday and closed the following day, with both sides agreeing a plan to reach a permanent deal within 60 days. The US issued a sanctions waiver running until 21 August, easing fears over global oil and LNG supply and pulling prices lower. Bloomberg reported that the QatarEnergy tankers Al Hamla, Al Areesh, and Al Khuwair made inbound transits with automatic tracking switched off, per Vortexa, before reappearing between 19 and 23 June.

What this means for UK buyers

For UK commercial buyers, the read-through is supply-side relief. Qatar is a primary source of LNG into Europe, and a credible ramp-up loosens the marginal cargo that sets prices at the NBP. Platts reported that QatarEnergy appears to be adhering to its LNG ramp-up schedule, with further empty tankers en route to Qatar. That points to softer front-month gas if safe passage holds.

The chart below shows NBP day-ahead gas over recent months, the benchmark against which this supply-side easing will be priced by UK buyers.

The restart is cautious, not complete. Watch these markers:

• Ballast QatarEnergy and ADNOC vessels moving in volume toward the Gulf
• Insurer confidence and war-risk premiums on Gulf transits
• Application of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding
• The 60-day window to a permanent agreement
• The 21 August sanctions waiver expiry

On crude, the same easing is visible. The Very Large Crude Carrier Dubai Energy, carrying 2 million barrels for Taiwan's CPC, left the strait overnight bound for Kaohsiung, while Universal Glory departed with 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, according to LSEG and Kpler data. Sanctioned Suezmax tankers Sobar and Sarak were tracked heading inbound. An explosion at a gas processing facility in the Ras Laffan complex on Monday did not affect Qatar's LNG facilities, the energy minister confirmed.

The FT reported that traffic had thinned ahead of the talks after closure threats from Tehran, so this week marks a clear reversal rather than a steady trend. S&P Global Energy notes the restart looks gradual and that the key risk is whether sustained safe passage and insurer confidence can support a lasting lift in Gulf LNG exports. For renewal timing, the direction of travel favours buyers, but the August waiver date is the next decision point on the curve.