Houthi strike on Saudi refinery lifts Brent 1.2% to $115.19 a barrel

Brent crude futures climbed $1.31, or 1.2%, to $115.19 a barrel by 1115 GMT on Wednesday, while US West Texas Intermediate gained $1.75, or 1.8%, to reach $101.65. The move followed a claimed strike on a Saudi refinery with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day, the kingdom's largest, though Saudi officials had not confirmed the attack at the time of writing.

The Iran-aligned Houthis said on Tuesday they had targeted the facility with a missile, extending a pattern of attacks against the world's second-largest crude producer. Bloomberg reported that the group has since urged residents to evacuate the international airport in Aden, seat of the Saudi-backed government, a sign the conflict is widening rather than cooling. ING strategists noted the market is now pricing in a higher probability of re-escalation, and said oil remains elevated while traders wait for clarity on US president Trump's next move towards Iran.

The chart below tracks Brent crude over recent months, giving context to today's spike above $115 a barrel.

What this means for UK buyers

For UK commercial energy buyers, Brent is the benchmark that feeds through into wholesale gas and power pricing via LNG cargo economics and generation costs, so a sustained move above $115 a barrel tightens the backdrop for any renewal priced this quarter. Businesses on flexible or pass-through contracts are the most exposed to near-term volatility; those with fixed contracts maturing in the next one to three months should treat this as a prompt to review timing rather than a reason to panic.

• Brent crude: $115.19/barrel, up 1.2% on the day
• WTI crude: $101.65/barrel, up 1.8%
• Saudi refinery targeted: 550,000 bpd capacity, strike unconfirmed by Riyadh
• US crude stocks: down 2.03 million barrels (API, week to 24 October), against a forecast 15,000-barrel build
• OPEC+ meeting: Sunday, core members expected to hold December output targets

Reuters reported that American Petroleum Institute data showed US crude inventories falling 2.03 million barrels for the week ending 24 October, confounding a Reuters poll that had forecast a modest build. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the inventory draw is adding to the upward pressure on prices, and the US Energy Information Administration's official figures were due later on Wednesday. Separately, traders flagged that Russian crude exports from Baltic and Black Sea ports may fall next month as refiners there divert barrels into diesel production under a recent agreement with Washington, a further tightening factor on the supply side.

Watch Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, where most of the seven core members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, are already producing below quota, alongside confirmation of the US midterm elections timeline; ING's view is that a period without further strikes on Iran could start to unwind the current risk premium.