ICE TTF drops €2.69 to €44.79/MWh as Iran signals Hormuz deal

The TTF front-month contract fell €2.69 to €44.79/MWh on ICE before partially recovering to €45.28/MWh by 12 GMT, a move of roughly 5% within a single session. For UK buyers, TTF is the primary pricing reference for NBP forward gas, so the swing feeds directly into the contracts your broker is quoting this week.

The trigger was a report from Iranian state television that Tehran has received a draft memorandum of understanding with the United States covering the restoration of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels. The Strait handles a significant share of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows; any confirmed reopening would ease the supply-tightness premium that has been embedded in European forward curves since tensions escalated.

What this means for UK gas and power buyers

The chart below shows NBP day-ahead gas over recent months, providing the UK reference price against which today's TTF move will be read.

A 5% single-session decline in TTF pulls NBP front-month pricing in the same direction. If you are in an active renewal window for a fixed-price contract, this move widens the range of outcomes you are pricing against. Buyers who deferred renewals expecting a softening have partial validation today, but a draft framework is not a signed agreement.

Contracts and reference points to monitor over the next 48 hours:

• TTF front-month (currently recovering around €45.28/MWh after the session low of €44.79/MWh)
• NBP day-ahead and front-month, which typically track TTF moves with a short lag
• Season-ahead UK gas (Winter 2025-26 and Summer 2026 strips)
• UK baseload power forwards, which reprice on gas given the marginal generation mix
• LNG spot freight and cargo diversion data out of the Gulf region

For flex-contract customers on a gas index, the move is already working through your bill. For fixed-contract buyers approaching an out-of-contract date, a confirmed Hormuz agreement could extend the current downward pressure; a collapse of talks would reverse it quickly.

The key uncertainty is whether the draft framework converts into a signed, verified agreement. Iran and the US have exchanged preliminary language before without reaching a durable settlement. National Grid ESO's near-term gas demand outlook and European storage injection rates will also shape how far TTF can fall before structural floor support reasserts itself. Watch for any official US or Iranian government confirmation of the framework's terms before treating today's price level as a new baseline.