OPEC+ approves fourth consecutive 188,000 bpd output rise for July

Seven core OPEC+ members are on course to approve a 188,000 bpd July quota increase, matching the June increment, according to three sources cited by Reuters. The move would mark the fourth consecutive monthly rise as the group unwinds a 1.65 million bpd cut agreed by the original eight members in 2023.

The headline figure masks a significant gap between paper targets and physical flows. OPEC data shows average production from the seven members fell to 33.19 million bpd in April, down sharply from 42.77 million bpd in February, as Gulf exporters reduced shipments in response to the Strait of Hormuz closure and ongoing conflict in Iran. The UAE's departure from OPEC on 1 May further complicated the arithmetic, trimming the June target from an originally planned 206,000 bpd to 188,000 bpd.

What this means for UK energy buyers

Brent over the last six months provides the backdrop against which the quota increase and the Hormuz constraint should be read.

Brent is the gravitational anchor for UK gas and power forward curves. A quota increase that outpaces physical delivery capacity tends to cap the upside on crude, which in turn limits the premium that LNG suppliers can extract from European buyers competing with Asian demand. For UK commercial buyers renewing fixed-price contracts in Q3 2025, that dynamic matters.

Key price points and decision factors to monitor:

• Brent front-month trajectory following Sunday's announcement
• NBP gas day-ahead and season-ahead response to any Brent softening
• Hormuz transit volumes as the primary constraint on Gulf crude reaching market
• Pace of remaining OPEC+ cut unwinding, with full reversal projected by end of September if 188,000 bpd monthly increments continue
• Any emergency ministerial session called if Hormuz disruption deepens before the August meeting

If the remaining cuts are fully unwound by late September as Reuters calculations suggest, approximately 567,000 bpd of additional supply will have returned to market from July alone. Whether that oil actually clears Hormuz is the variable that separates the quota decision from its real-world price effect.

Watch Sunday's online ministerial session for the formal vote, then Monday and Tuesday's technical meetings in Vienna for any guidance on August policy. The gap between stated quotas and actual production will be the figure that moves Brent, and therefore your forward curve, in the weeks that follow.