Brent slips to $90.99 as Trump eases off new strikes on Iran

Brent crude dropped 1.7% to $90.99 a barrel by 0759 GMT, with US WTI futures down 1.8% to $85.20 a barrel. Both benchmarks had already fallen roughly 2% intraday and Brent closed the prior session down 5.85%, its lowest since 31 August. The move extends a sharp retreat from the six-month peak of $118 hit on 30 October, with Brent now down approximately 22% from that high.

The driver is political, not operational. Trump told Reuters and later a White House press briefing that he would hold off on further strikes against Iran 'at this point', following requests from regional governments including Qatar's prime minister. A naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues, but the market read the comments as a step back from escalation. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said the market 'continues to focus on President Trump's more conciliatory approach towards Iran since the midterms', adding that attacks on shipping in the strait 'haven't escalated to a level that necessitates a new risk premium'.

What this means for UK buyers

Oil and gas price formation are not the same market, but sentiment carries across. Brent softening on reduced Middle East risk removes some of the geopolitical premium that has been feeding into wider energy pricing, and that matters for how you read forward curves ahead of renewal. The FT reported that Brent fell below $90 as Trump pulled back from the threat to strike Iran, underlining how directly the political signal, rather than a change in physical supply, moved the price.

Buyers reviewing contracts over the coming weeks should note:

• Brent crude (currently $90.99/barrel, down 1.7% on the day)
• WTI crude ($85.20/barrel, down 1.8%)
• OPEC October output higher on Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq gains, per a Reuters survey
• Strait of Hormuz shipping risk still elevated despite the naval blockade continuing
• US-Iran diplomatic signals as the swing factor on any further de-escalation

Gregory Brew, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, cautioned that prices are unlikely to fall much further without firmer evidence of de-escalation or a US-Iran agreement, noting that 'shipping risks remain elevated, as Iran continues to target vessels in the Strait of Hormuz'. That keeps a floor under the market even as the immediate strike risk has eased.

Separately, Russian and Ukrainian officials began two days of US-facilitated talks on Tuesday, their first since February, after Trump suggested a broader peace settlement covering European security could be within reach. Any progress there adds a further variable to the geopolitical risk buyers are pricing into energy forward curves alongside the Iran situation.

Watch whether Brent holds above $90 over the coming sessions: Brew's view is that this level acts as a floor absent concrete de-escalation, so a sustained break below it would mark a genuine shift in risk pricing rather than a one-session reaction.